Bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine expect the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to maintain the key rate on September 19 at the current level of 13% per annum.

"Considering a number of macroeconomic factors influencing the key rate, the market situation, and, in fact the consistent monetary policy of the NBU, now and until the end of the year it [the key rate] will remain unchanged," shared the forecast of Head of the Retail Business Department of Sense Bank Yulia Tur.

Chairman of the Board of OTP Bank Volodymyr Mudry said at the moment there are positive trends in the financial market due to the receipt of financial assistance from international partners in August in the amount of $8.4 billion, which increased gold and foreign exchange reserves.

"But inflation continues to grow, which will restrain the NBU from further reducing the key rate this year," the banker believes.

"It is most likely that the National Bank will not reduce the key rate any further by the end of this year. (…) At the same time, there is a possibility that the NBU will resort to reducing the yield on deposit certificates in order to stimulate banks' investments in lending and government bonds," Product Owner of the Non-Credit Products Department at PUMB Serhiy Kravchenko said.

The banker expects stability in rates on hryvnia deposits, at least until the downward inflation trend returns.

In turn, Chairman of the Board of Unex Bank Ivan Svitek focused on the government's initiative to increase the military tax from 1.5% to 5% from October 1. He said the proposed solutions are "directly inflationary in nature" and will reduce the real rate on deposits due to the additional tax burden on interest on them.

In his opinion, the expected acceleration of inflation and the decline in the attractiveness of hryvnia deposits are a "strong argument" in favor of raising the key rate by 0.5-1 percentage point. However, Svitek, like his colleagues, is more inclined to the baseline forecast of keeping the rate at 13% per annum.

"However, in my opinion, the balance of probabilities is still shifted in favor of keeping the rate at the current level in a ratio of six to four," he said.

As reported, the NBU Board decided to keep the key rate at 13% per annum from July 26, 2024, which was in line with market expectations. The decision was supported by all members of the NBU's Monetary Policy Committee.