Transit of gas from Azerbaijan through Ukraine won't protect its GTS from Russian shelling - former head of GTSOU
Transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe will not protect the Ukrainian gas transportation system from Russian shelling, believes Serhiy Makogon, the general director of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine LLC (GTSOU) in 2019-2022.
"There is such an argument - the Russians will not attack the Ukrainian GTS as long as there is transit of Azerbaijani gas. What interest do they have in not attacking if it is Azerbaijani gas? The only argument is that there will be Russian gas, even under the guise of Azerbaijani gas," he said during a press conference at the Media Center Ukraine in Kyiv on Thursday.
At the same time, he noted that even under such conditions, the Russians will not stop in their intentions to destroy Ukraine's energy sector, including gas, since the transit gas pipeline is only part of the extensive and powerful Ukrainian GTS
"But we have no guarantees that if transit is maintained, the Russians will not attack the GTS," he said.
"They have already spent $15 billion to damage our electricity industry, there were six waves of missile attacks on the GTS in western Ukraine. Yes, there were no such attacks on the GTS as, for example, on thermal power plants, but this does not mean that they feel sorry for it - they simply do not have enough missiles. Military facilities, Ukrzaliznytsia, generation and transmission of electricity are now a priority," Makogon explained.
At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that even with significant damage to the GTS, it will be able to perform its functions, for which various appropriate response scenarios have been developed.
"The transit pipeline is not connected with the transportation of gas, for example, to Kyiv. It is 500 km from Odesa, where, in particular, gas can be delivered from Moldova. It does not concern Lviv. This is one of dozens of gas pipelines that exist in Ukraine … If there is significant damage to the gas infrastructure, it is theoretically possible that there will be problems with gas supply. But, for example, Kyiv has the so-called Kyiv gas ring. This means that it is not possible to interrupt it in one place and leave it without gas. It goes to Kyiv through six or seven gas pipelines. Yes, a gradual reduction in consumption is possible - first industry, then the population," the former head of GTSOU described the situation.
According to him, continuing the transit of gas from the Russian Federation, even under the guise of Azerbaijani, would still make sense if Ukraine, for its part, set certain conditions, for example, the return of Zaporizhia NPP occupied by the Russians and guarantees not to hit the power grid.
"And if we are now offered the transit of what appears to be Azerbaijani gas, and everyone understands that this is in fact Russian gas, then it seems to me that this is simply a deal that will allow the Russians to continue earning $5 billion annually, which they will use to strengthen their armament," Makogon emphasized.