NBU's net foreign exchange interventions increase by 21.1% last week
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sale on the interbank market by $130.95 million, or 21.0%, to $755.10 million, according to statistics on the regulator's website.
The data that the regulator managed to publish during this time indicate a change in the situation on the cash foreign exchange market: the balance was negative on all days and ranged from $2.0 million on Monday to $15.3 million on Tuesday, $9.2 million on Wednesday and $12.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated within narrow limits from UAH 41.5470 per $1 at the beginning of the week to UAH 41.4983 per $1 at its end.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate practically did not change over the week: buying about UAH 41.42 per $1, and selling UAH 41.50 per $1.
As KIT Group experts noted, the approaching tax payment period, as well as the seasonal intensification of operations in the energy sector and imported purchases of energy carriers, add liquidity to the market, but are highly unlikely to lead to noticeable exchange rate deviations provided that key current conditions remain.
In their opinion, the technical and psychological support of the market is provided by the growth of international reserves to $46.7 billion (10% more in April), which forms an additional margin of stability for the policy of "managed flexibility."
In the short-term horizon (from two to four weeks), KIT Group expects the exchange rate range to remain at UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.80 per $1 with local fluctuations within a 20-kopeck range under the influence of situational factors, provided that current circumstances remain unchanged.
According to the company, in the medium-term horizon (from two to four weeks), the exchange rate may remain stable or shift to UAH 41.80 to UAH 42.50 per $1 under the influence of moderate devaluation.
