Milk production volumes in Jan-April 4% less y-o-y, exports under threat due to expected EU quotas – analysts

 Farms of all categories in April 2025 produced 604,000 tonnes of raw milk, which is 9% more than in March 2025, but 4% less than in April 2024, the Milk Producers Association said, citing data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

The industry association said that in January-April 2025, milk production in Ukraine amounted to 2.05 million tonnes, which is 4% less than in the same period last year. In April 2025, the share of enterprises in the production of raw milk was 45%, and households some 55%.

At the same time, enterprises produced 270,000 tonnes of raw milk in April 2025, which is 1% less compared to March 2025, but 6% more compared to April 2024. In January-April 2025, dairy farms produced 1.04 million tonnes of raw milk, which is 5% more year-over-year.

In households, the volume of milk yield in April 2025 was 334,000 tonnes of milk, which is 18% more compared to March 2025, but 11% less compared to April 2024. In January-April 2025, the household sector produced 1,010 tonnes of raw milk, which is 12% less than the previous year.

The industry association drew attention to the fact that in January-April 2025, dairy farms (DFF) increased the production of raw milk in 13 regions. Among the new leaders in terms of production are Khmelnytsky, Ternopil and Zhytomyr regions. However, according to the results of January-April, milk yield slowed down at DFFs in Zakarpattia and Kharkiv regions, despite the fact that in the first quarter they demonstrated an increase in production. Zakarpattia region has historically not been a dairy region, but Kharkiv region, unfortunately, continues to suffer from Russian aggression.

"Broken farms, forced relocation from front-line regions, as well as the uncertain situation on the dairy market do not contribute to increasing the volume of milk yield at agricultural enterprises," AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili said.

In addition, domestic dairy processing enterprises with outdated technological base are not able to compete in quality with enterprises in developed countries. Therefore, they are not ready to purchase raw milk at market prices, as they sell their products at lower prices in order to withstand competition in export markets. However, in conditions of increasing cost of milk production, low purchase prices do not meet the interests of producers. MTFs are forced to increase spending on biosecurity measures to prevent the spread of foot-and-mouth disease from Hungary and Slovakia.

The AVM pointed out the likelihood of a decrease in the volume of dairy product exports to the EU in the event of the abolition of autonomous trade measures (ATMs) for milk and dairy products from Ukraine, which since 2022 allowed domestic processing enterprises to supply their products to the EU without quotas and duties.

The association said that in 2024, Ukrainian companies exported 14,910 tonnes of skimmed milk powder to the EU, while the annual quota for skimmed milk powder for Ukraine is only 5,000 tonnes, exports for the first four months of 2025 are already 4,330 tonnes.

"We have problems selling domestic products on the domestic market. Today, the volume of dairy production in Ukraine is ahead of its sales. There is a decrease in demand for dairy products on the domestic market in the context of the intensification of missile and bomb strikes by the Russian occupiers on cities with a population of millions and the outflow of their residents abroad. Another challenge was the increase in cheese imports. In April, imports accounted for 47% of cheese sales in Ukraine. The increase in the supply of imported cheeses in Ukraine hinders the sale of domestic cheese producers' products on the domestic market and restrains the demand for raw milk," the industry association said.