Cabinet predicts acceleration of Ukraine's GDP growth to 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027 – Budget Declaration
The 2026-2028 Budget Declaration, approved by the government on June 27, 2025, provides for an acceleration of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 by 4.5%, in 2027 by 5% and in 2028 by 5.7%, the text of the document on the Cabinet of Ministers website states.
"Gross domestic product is expected to continue to grow in 2025, but at a slower pace – at 2.7%. Risks to economic growth remain the security factor, in particular, continued shelling of energy and transport infrastructure facilities, continued destruction of production facilities," the document reads.
In addition, it is noted that the negative economic consequences of the war will be mitigated by the support of international partners, the adaptation of economic agents to new realities, and coordinated measures taken by the government to support macroeconomic stability and domestic business.
As for the following years, the document explains that GDP growth will occur, in particular, due to the development of export potential, modernization of industry, and the gradual restoration of domestic demand.
It is expected that the nominal GDP of Ukraine during this period will demonstrate a clear upward trend: from UAH 10.444 billion in 2026 to UAH 13.472 billion in 2028.
As for inflation, its indicator is forecast at 9.5% for 2026, while price dynamics during 2025 will be influenced by multidirectional factors. On the one hand, the slowdown in inflation rates will be influenced by a moratorium on raising some tariffs, restrained demand, saturation of the market with product supply and relative stability in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, potential risks will remain in the form of increased producer costs and obstacles in logistics, which will lead to the transfer of additional costs to prices for the end consumer. In 2027, the consumer price index will increase by 7.1%, in 2028 by 5.6%.
The declaration emphasizes that Ukraine's economic development will largely depend on the duration and course of the active phase of hostilities, the volume of financial assistance from international partners, and the dynamics of migration processes. Reducing the level of security risks and supporting international partners in overcoming the consequences of the war will create the prerequisites for the restoration of investment activity in Ukraine.
The unemployment rate in the document reaches 12.9% in 2026, 13.3% in 2027, and 12.8% in 2028.
At the same time, export volumes are expected to be at the level of $66.25 billion in 2026, $76.3 billion in 2027, and almost $86 billion in 2028, and imports – almost $101 billion in 2026, $110 billion in 2027, and $118.88 billion in 2028.
As reported, on June 27, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the budget declaration for 2026-2028.
The EFF Extended Fund Facility with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) contains a structural beacon for submitting the declaration to parliament by the end of June, and the Fund's Board of Directors is scheduled to consider the next, 8th review of the program on June 30.
The budget declaration contains general indicators of state budget revenues and financing, maximum indicators of state budget expenditures, the minimum wage, the subsistence minimum and other state policy goals.