Ukrainian govt approves 2 macro forecast scenarios with 2026 GDP growth of 4.5%, 2.4%

The Ukrainian government has approved two macroeconomic and social development scenarios for 2026–2028, forecasting real GDP growth of either 4.5% or 2.4% in 2026, depending on conditions. The corresponding inflation rates are projected at 8.6% and 9.9%, respectively.

Resolution No. 946, dated August 6, outlines an optimistic scenario in which GDP growth accelerates to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, while inflation drops to 7.1% and 5.6%. Under the more conservative scenario, GDP is projected to rise by 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, with inflation decreasing to 9.7% and 7.5%.

The first scenario assumes that 13 million individuals aged 15–70 will be economically active in 2026, increasing to 13.2 million by 2028. The second scenario projects the same figures at 0.2 million lower.

Unemployment under the optimistic model is expected to rise from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, before falling to 12.8% in 2028. The conservative model foresees a steady increase in unemployment from 12.6% in 2026 to 13.1% in 2028.

The average monthly wage, adjusted for inflation, is expected to grow annually by 6.5–8.9% under the first scenario and 4.6–5.1% under the second.

In terms of trade, the optimistic outlook sees exports rising 14.3% in 2026, with imports increasing just 2.7%. The second scenario forecasts export growth of 5.9% and import growth of 7.9%. As a result, the trade deficit under the first scenario would amount to $34.71 billion, compared to $44.46 billion in the second.

The resolution does not specify which of the two scenarios will serve as the baseline for the 2026 state budget.

As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised its macroeconomic forecast in July. Its baseline scenario now projects only a modest economic recovery, with GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 – down from the 3.7% expected in April's inflation report. Inflation for 2026 was also revised upward from 5% to 6.6%.

"At the same time, if a faster normalization of conditions occurs, private investment and consumption could rise significantly and offset the effects of rapid fiscal consolidation, with GDP growth potentially reaching 3–3.5%," the NBU added.

Additionally, the NBU downgraded its 2025 forecast, projecting 2.1% GDP growth (down from 3.1%) and 9.7% inflation (up from 8.7%).

Ukraine's Ministry of Economy is maintaining its 2025 forecast for real GDP growth at 2.6–2.7%.

Real GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 0.9% after a 0.1% decline in Q4 2024. The NBU estimates GDP growth for Q2 2025 at 1.1% year-on-year – down from the previously forecast 1.6%.

According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in 2024, compared to 5.5% in 2023, following a steep 28.8% decline in 2022 – the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion.