Cabinet confirms macro forecast for 2025, expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, in the draft state budget for 2026 approved on Monday, confirmed the forecast of growth in Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) this year by 2.7% with a slowdown to 2.4% in 2026.

According to the explanatory note to the document, published on the website of the Verkhovna Rada, inflation is set at 9.5% (December to December) for 2025, and 9.9% (December to December) in 2026. On average, the government expects the consumer price index to increase by 12.2% year-on-year this year, and by 10.4% in 2026.

The industrial producer price index (December to December) is expected to be 14.2% in 2025, and 13.6% in 2026.

The average monthly salary of employees in 2025 is set at UAH 25,886, and in 2026 it will increase by 16% - to UAH 30,032. As the government explains, this is due to the desire of employers to retain and attract highly qualified personnel amid a limited supply of labor resources.

As for the unemployment rate of the population aged 15-70, the government hopes for a slight decrease: in 2024 it was 17.7%, in 2025 it is planned to be 12.7%, and in 2026 - 12.6%.

In addition, in the 2026 state budget, the government has foreseen an increase in exports from almost $57.98 billion in 2025 to $61.4 billion in 2026. At the same time, imports will also grow - to $105.8 billion from $98.34 billion. Thus, the trade balance will reach $40.36 billion in 2025 and $44.46 billion in 2026.

In 2026, the subsistence minimum per person per month will be UAH 3,209, and for the main social and demographic groups of the population - children under six years old – UAH 2,817, children from six to 18 years old – UAH 3,512, able-bodied persons – UAH 3,328, and for persons who have lost their ability to work – UAH 2,595.

At the same time, the minimum wage from January 1, 2026 is set at UAH 8,647 (UAH 8,000 in 2025), the official salary of an employee of the 1st tariff category of the Unified Tariff Grid from January 1 is UAH 3,470.

As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers in the Budget Declaration for 2026-2028 envisages accelerating GDP growth from 2.7% this year to 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.