Ukrposhta to be profitable in 2025-2028 according to baseline forecast – company
According to the baseline scenario, which assumes an average annual increase in revenues of 9%, operating expenses of 8%, and capital investments of UAH 2.9 billion over the period, Ukrposhta will be profitable in 2025-2028. These materials were submitted by the government to the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday night as part of the draft law on the state budget of Ukraine for 2026.
"According to expectations, JSC Ukrposhta's activities will be profitable under the baseline scenario in 2025-2028. This is ensured by growth in parcel income and controlled growth in expenses," the documents state.
According to them, Ukrposhta's pre-tax profit is expected to be UAH 0.23 billion this year, UAH 0.13 billion next year, UAH 0.32 billion in 2027, and UAH 0.40 billion in 2028.
According to the expectations, under the baseline scenario, the company's debt will decrease from UAH 1.5 billion in 2025 to UAH 1.0 billion in 2028.
"Under the alternative scenario, the company's performance is more volatile - from positive in 2025, it decreases to losses in 2026 due to an increase in operating expenses and depreciation, and profit is moderately restored from 2027. Under the negative scenario, the company's financial performance is expected to be negative throughout the period, deteriorating sharply after 2025," the materials say.
Additionally, the baseline scenario assumes that the Russian Federation's armed aggression will not impact the operation of seaports, which will operate at full capacity starting in 2026. It also assumes a gradual return to market conditions starting in 2026, a 3.2% annual decrease in the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar, an 8.7% annual inflation rate in Ukraine, and a slowdown in international inflation, which will allow for a relaxation of monetary policy.
The alternative scenario assumes a full restoration of shipping in the Black Sea and a gradual return to market conditions only from 2027, the negative one - this year, but a little later, as well as a slightly larger devaluation (4.5% and 8.9%) and inflation (10.2%-9.8%).
It is recalled that JSC Ukrposhta in 2024 received a loss of UAH 413.2 million against UAH 796.4 million in 2023. The company's liquidity in 2024 decreased by 9% compared to 2023.
It is also noted that the company's current liabilities exceeded its current assets by UAH 3.73 billion, which led to a decrease in the current liquidity ratio from 0.69 in 2023 to 0.63 in 2024.
As noted, Ukrposhta's debt load is high: debt to assets in 2024 is 98%. Currently, capital expenditures are focused on the implementation of a logistics network development project, financed under a loan agreement with the EBRD and EIB in the amount of EUR 63 million and EUR 30 million.