NBU allows banks to use forecast data when assessing borrowers from frontline regions

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised the approaches used by banks to assess credit risk for legal entities operating in frontline areas and those that have suffered significant losses due to the war or natural disasters, allowing banks to take forecast data into account when evaluating such borrowers, according to a statement on the regulator’s website.

"This decision will expand businesses' access to bank loans, particularly in front-line territories. The National Bank will continue to respond flexibly to current challenges in order to strike a balance between maintaining financial stability and ensuring the economy's access to resources," the National Bank said in the statement on Tuesday.

According to Resolution No. 124, which took effect on October 7, 2025, the NBU permitted banks to use projected financial indicators during the martial law period and for 365 days afterward when evaluating the creditworthiness of borrowers in front-line territories. Previously, banks were required to use only historical financial results from previous periods. These assessments must be based on the bank's judgment of the prospects for resuming operations, according to criteria established by the regulator.

To qualify, the borrower must confirm the damage or destruction of assets that generated cash flows and provide a substantiated plan for restoring activities, including realistic 365-day forecasts. The conditions include documentary confirmation of losses and a decrease in financial indicators, as well as prerequisites for restoring debt servicing.

Additionally, the regulator allows banks to disregard the debtor/counterparty's default when assessing credit risk for other assets if the default occurred due to foreign exchange currency or operational restrictions introduced during martial law.

This norm will be valid throughout the entire period of martial law and for an additional 180 days after it ends.

According to the NBU, as of September 1, 2025, the gross volume of loans in the banking system amounted to UAH 1.482 trillion, and the share of non-performing loans (NPL) in the banking sector of Ukraine was 25.3%.