Yatsenyuk: Be ready – there won't be as much money next year as this year
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum and Ukraine's prime minister from 2014–2016, says Ukraine faces a catastrophic trade balance amid the full-scale war, and although consumer demand has not yet collapsed, he believes such a collapse will inevitably occur after hostilities end.
Asked in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine how he assesses the economy's ability to withstand several more years of war, he replied: "The West will provide funds, we will make it. If not we won't." "If we don't get what's called a reparations loan now, we have money only until February. Maybe not everyone knows this, but in recent years we have been spending other people's money. Without assistance we wouldn't survive. Half the budget is money given to us by our allies," Yatsenyuk explained.
He said the financial aid that arrived in Ukraine and entered reserves is being sold on the market to finance the state budget deficit, and "there won't be as much money next year as in the current year, people need to be ready for that." At the same time, he said, Ukraine effectively has a fixed exchange rate.
"I understand the National Bank's and government's policy. Would I have acted the same way? I would have moved the exchange rate. But only in a way that would not allow, first, the collapse of the banking system; second, social destabilization; and third, inflation. Our trade balance is simply catastrophic – a negative $38 billion; we don't earn foreign currency, imports exceed exports. That means if you move the rate when 50% of goods are imported, it immediately affects inflation. There is another side: if you move the rate, imports become more expensive and fewer, and the trade balance will improve somewhat," the KSF chairman explained.
He stressed that from the standpoint of classical economics what is happening in Ukraine now is not correct. "But we are in a war economy; we must survive, so we have to choose between bad and worse," Yatsenyuk said.
The former prime minister noted that the average wage in Ukraine rose by 24% in 2024 and by 18% in 2025, while inflation was 12% in 2024 and about 14% for the first nine months of 2025.
"So incomes for working people are growing faster than inflation. As of today I don't see a catastrophe in consumer demand. It will come after hostilities end, when the economy and circumstances change. The next government can take our 2014 playbook. Only it will have to do twice as much as I did as prime minister," Yatsenyuk said.