Ukrzaliznytsia predicts 7% reduction in freight transportation in 2025, 0.6% increase in 2026

The volume of freight transportation by Ukrzaliznytsia in 2025 will decrease by 7% compared to last year – from 173 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes, and in the following years it will be possible to increase it only to 161 million tonnes and 162 million tonnes, respectively, the company announced such data to journalists during a presentation on November 7.

According to the presentation, the volume of ore and manganese transportation is expected to reach 44 million tonnes in 2025-2026, compared to 43 million tonnes last year, and to decrease to 42 million tonnes in 2027.

From 2025 to 2027, the forecast for the transportation of grain and flour is 31 million tonnes, which is 22.5% (or 9 million tonnes) less than in 2024.

Ukrzaliznytsia noted that it expects a reduction in the transportation of construction materials, from 35 million tonnes in 2024 to 30-32 million tonnes from 2025 to 2027.

According to the presentation, the volume of hard coal transported will decrease by 17.4%, from 23 million tonnes in 2024 to 19 million tonnes in 2025-2027.

The company plans to offset these losses by increasing transportation of other cargoes from 32 million tonnes last year to 36 million tonnes this year and by additional 1 million tonnes each subsequent year.

Ukrzaliznytsia added that the total volume of cargo transported from 2021 to 2025 decreased by 49%, from 315 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes. During this period, there was a 43% reduction in ore transportation, a 52% reduction in construction materials, and a 62% reduction in coal.

According to the presentation, the forecast for freight transportation profitability is even worse. Last year's profit of UAH 20.4 billion will decrease to UAH 3.2 billion next year. Next year, freight transportation will result in a loss of UAH 0.6 billion. In 2027, the loss will be UAH 4.8 billion.

The company cites the fixation of tariffs, which were last increased in 2022, as the reason, although the producer price index has increased by 69.3% since then.

In September 2025, Valeriy Tkachev, the Deputy Director of the Commercial Department of Ukrzaliznytsia, reported that the company expects freight transportation to decrease to 162-165 million tonnes this year, down from 175 million tonnes last year. This is an improvement from 150-155 million tonnes recorded in the first two years of Russia's full-scale aggression, down from 312-315 million tonnes.