Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment as of September 18.

It also noted that "Ukrainian strikes are undermining Russia's ability to conduct long-range missile strikes against Ukraine." ISW recalled that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition depots throughout occupied Ukraine in summer 2022, prompting Russian forces to disperse ammunition storage facilities and degrading the efficiency of Russian logistics at the time.

Repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage to the strike in Toropets may force a similar decision point on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes.

According to ISW, the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities.

"Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theater in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale," it said.