Russia demands Ukraine to abandon defensive line in Donetsk region without guarantees that fighting will not resume – ISW
Russia's demands to transfer control over part of Donetsk region to it imply Ukraine's abandonment of a well-fortified defensive line, while containing neither guarantees of abandonment of any territories that the Russian side currently controls, nor guarantees of non-resumption of hostilities, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
"The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would position Russian forces extremely well to renew their attacks on much more favorable terms, having avoided a long and bloody struggle for the ground. Conceding such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its "fortress belt," the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — with no guarantee that fighting will not resume... Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities," the ISW report of August 8 reads.
It noted that Russian forces are still trying to encircle this belt of fortresses from the southwest and are engaged in attempts to capture it, but that this will take several years under current conditions. "Putin's reported proposal reportedly demands that Ukraine concede this critical defensive position, which Russian forces currently have no means of rapidly enveloping or penetrating, apparently in exchange for nothing.Ceding Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast will place Russian forces on the borders of Donetsk Oblast, a position that is significantly less defensible than the current line," the institute said.
The ISW also notes that Putin's demands to cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, along with Crimea, as part of ceasefire talks, reported by the media, did not state any intention to freeze the current front lines in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, nor did they mention the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or from positions in Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv regions.
"Putin may be offering this proposal in an attempt to delay the sanctions that Trump threatened to impose by August 8 if Putin did not begin to negotiate with Ukraine to end the war… Putin is likely deliberately offering a proposal designed to be unacceptable to Ukraine in order to delay sanctions as well as meaningful ceasefire negotiations and place the blame for the failure of negotiations on Ukraine," the institute said.
It is also noted that the Kremlin is not creating the internal information conditions necessary for the Russian people to accept a settlement that is not a complete victory in Ukraine.
"Putin's reported proposal once again underscores that he maintains his uncompromising demands for Ukraine's capitulation and remains disinterested in good-faith negotiations," the ISW summarizes.
