Global demand for steel in 2025 to remain at 2024 level, to grow by 1.3% in 2026 – updated Worldsteel forecast

Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the level of the previous year - about 1.7 billion tonnes after a drop of 1.6% last year, the World Steel Association predicts in its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for global steel demand in 2025 and 2026.

Global steel demand is expected to grow by 1.3% to 1.771 million tonnes in 2026 (excluding China and the CIS, Russia, and Ukraine).

Meanwhile, demand in the CIS (including Ukraine) is expected to decline by 5.2% in 2025, reaching 56.1 million tonnes, and by an additional 1.7% in 2026, reaching 55.2 million tonnes.

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrad, Chief Economist of the Spanish Steel Producers Association (UNESID) and Head of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, commented on the updated forecast, saying that despite the significant escalation of the global trade war and its inherent uncertainty, they are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026.

However, he added that the forecast growth in 2026 is driven by a combination of strong regional trends. Worldsteel expects the decline in steel demand from China to slow down, as well as strong growth in emerging markets such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Most importantly, Worldsteel expects a long-awaited return to growth in steel demand in Europe.

It notes, among other things, that steel demand in China will continue to decline this year by around 2%. This reflects a softening of the downward trend observed since 2021, primarily due to the ongoing housing market downturn. Looking ahead to 2026, the decline is expected to slow further to 1% as the housing market stabilizes.

Demand for steel in developing countries, excluding China, is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. This growth is primarily due to strong performance in India, as well as in some ASEAN, Middle Eastern, and North African countries.

India's steel demand is expected to grow rapidly, at around 9% in 2025 and 2026, due to growth across all sectors that use steel. Next year, India’s steel demand is expected to be nearly 75 million tonnes higher than in 2020.

Since the mid-2010s, steel demand in Africa has remained largely flat, hovering around 35–40 million tonnes. However, significant changes have been observed since 2023, indicating a clear revival in construction and steel consumption across the continent.

Worldsteel forecasts a 1.3% increase in demand in the EU+UK region in 2025 and a 3.2% increase in 2026.

U.S. steel demand is expected to recover by 1.8% this year, driven by increased production ahead of tariff hikes and growth in infrastructure spending.