EIRC winter scenario: tough 4-5 days after attacks on energy sector, partial stabilization and planned recovery

 The scenario for the winter will be similar to the current situation: several very difficult days with emergency power outages after a massive attack by the Russian Federation on the energy sector, after which a certain improvement in energy consumption is expected, and then a transition to a planned recovery, believes the director of the Energy Industry Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko.

"I think the winter will proceed in the same mode in which we have been living for the past month and a half. A large-scale, concentrated attack on a significant number of energy facilities, followed by problems caused by it during 3-4 days of the most challenging emergency response, then a partial improvement in the situation, and afterwards, step by step, a systematic restoration of normal power supply. In an emergency situation, the first 4-5 days will be very difficult — this is objective," Kharchenko said during a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine in Kyiv on Monday.

At the same time, he emphasized that emergency outages "may be long and complex," but there will be no loss of system controllability. Kharchenko also noted that he does not currently see any intentions from Russia to carry out further large-scale attacks on the energy sector, like those in October-November.

"I do not see any effort on that side [Russia] to take radical steps to worsen our situation. It seems that this is currently a task for them that is not being resolved. They carried out three consecutive waves of very large attacks that complicated the situation, but there were no cascading failures, no loss of system control, and no panic in the energy sector. Everyone knows what to do," emphasized the director of the Energy Industry Research Center.