Majority of Ukrainians do not believe in success of current negotiations, oppose withdrawal of AFU from Donbas – survey
An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (70%) do not believe that the current Ukrainian-American-Russian negotiations to end the war in Ukraine will lead to a lasting peace, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on February 12-24.
Only 25% of respondents believe in the success of the negotiations, while the remaining 5% were undecided. Compared to mid-January 2026, no changes in public opinion on this issue were observed.
At the same time, 57% of Ukrainians categorically reject the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe. Overall, 36% are ready to accept this, though mostly reluctantly. The remaining 7% were unable to decide or refused to answer.
In late January 2026, 52% were categorically opposed and 40% were generally ready to support such a proposal; in mid-January 2026, the figures were 54% and 38%, respectively. This indicates that there have been no significant shifts in public sentiment over the last month. KIIS noted that the question did not mention official recognition of Donbas territories as part of Russia; researchers believe support would be even lower in that case.
The survey shows a geographical trend: from west to east, more people find the transfer of Donbas to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees acceptable. However, even in the eastern macro-region, those ready for such a step (44%) are fewer than those opposed (45%). In the west, the figures are 32% and 60% respectively, and in KYIV, 33% and 62%.
Additionally, respondents under the age of 45 are more willing to consider the transfer of Donbas for security guarantees, while older generations are more likely to oppose it. The proposal is also more acceptable to Russian speakers (51% vs. 37%), while Ukrainian and bilingual speakers are more often opposed. Gender, education level, wealth, and type of settlement do not significantly impact the answers.
"Ukrainians continue to be critical of the current peace negotiations and the majority do not have optimistic expectations… At the same time, Ukrainians remain open to difficult compromises and are ready to discuss them—but not at the cost of surrender. Specifically, on the issue of Donbas, we see that more than half reject such a proposal, and those who agree with it set tough requirements for security guarantees," said KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi.
The survey was conducted via telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile numbers across all government-controlled regions of Ukraine among 2,004 respondents aged 18 and older. The statistical error for a sample of this size does not exceed 4.1% under normal circumstances.
