'Georgian scenario ' impossible in Ukraine after elections – analyst
Russia is already starting to play on the electoral field in Ukraine, but pro-Russian forces will be able to gain no more than 15% during the post-war elections, and a repetition of the Georgian political scenario in the country is impossible, notes Vadym Denysenko, head of the Dilova Stolytsia analytical center.
"Today we are not talking about the elections in Ukraine, we are talking about the trends that are currently being laid... Russia is already starting to prepare for the upcoming elections in Ukraine, and it is starting to play its games quite actively," Denysenko said during a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Friday.
He reported that according to the results of the analysis of sociological research conducted over the past year, "approximately 7-12% of latent pro-Russian voters remain in Ukraine."
"If we talk about the maximum possible pro-Russian electorate in Ukraine, it is a maximum of 15%. Realistically, it is probably estimated at about 10-11%. This is really quite a lot. And if, of course, they all unite under a single political force and have some single charismatic leader, I repeat that they can get up to 15% at most," he said.
At the same time, he noted that only 2-3% of the population of Ukraine maintains an openly pro-Russian position.
Volodymyr Nahirny, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that a significant part of the population of Ukraine perceives Russian culture as an element of their own identity and Ukraine has a certain system of attitudes and values, which is oriented towards the Russian environment. "It is quite motley, but it exists... Russia always uses it," he noted.
At the same time, the expert noted that Ukraine is now at a point "when there is an opportunity to completely get rid of various pro-Russian forces in the Ukrainian political field." He recalled that after the Revolution of Dignity, the Communist Party of Ukraine, which was the flagship of the pro-Russian segment of Ukrainian politics, lost the elections. Then the pro-Russian voter made a choice in favor of a more moderate political field associated with the Opposition Platform - For Life.
"Today we are observing a situation where electorally it is quite possible that the post-OPZH will not have any chance of any serious success, but nevertheless the pro-Russian segment will still be represented," explained Nahirny.
According to him, it is very important "not only when and how the elections will be held, but also what ideas will be proposed at these elections."
According to Denysenko, one of the main tasks of the subversive work of the Russians in Ukraine is "the maximum atomization of society and the maximum heating of hostile sentiments between these atomistic parts of Ukrainian society." "The second point, the second big narrative is the reduction of the goals of the war to foreign or incomprehensible interests. Messages like this is a war of the oligarchs, we are being used as geopolitical puppets, we can never defeat a nuclear state, and so on. Such messages form an emotional distancing from the resistance, level the meaning of sacrifice, and stimulate the loss of the national context of the war. That is, they need to do everything in their power to ensure that this war ceases to be existential for Ukraine and for Ukrainians. The third point is the discrediting of mobilization as such," he said.
In addition, the hybrid use of Western and historical experience is used as an argument in favor of a peaceful settlement at any cost, as well as this is the maximum inflation of the idea of Ukraine's isolationism, he added.