Russian Hybrid Influence on the Western Balkans Discussed in Sarajevo
Russia remains a key factor of destabilization in the Western Balkan region — this was stated at the round table “Current Security and Stability Threats in the Western Balkans: Destructive External Influences and Internal Factors”, held on October 4 at the Holiday Hotel in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina). The event, organized by the Center for Western Balkans Studies (CWBS) (Montenegro), gathered experts from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
The discussion focused on the strengthening of Russia’s hybrid influence, in particular Russian interference in the elections in Moldova, the political crises in Serbia, and the challenges of the region’s European integration.
Balša Božović, founder of the Regional Academy for Democratic Development (Serbia), opening the event, emphasized that the security threats to the Western Balkans originating from external actors have recently intensified, especially due to Russia’s interference in the parliamentary elections in Moldova on September 29. He also noted that Russian influence is being implemented both directly and indirectly, through Serbian influence in the region.
Ljubomir Filipović, co-founder of the Center for Western Balkans Studies, noted that Russia spreads its influence through various formats and in different directions. In addition to the traditional media component, through which disinformation is disseminated, the academic and cultural spheres are also important. The goal of such influence is the polarization of societies, which leads to regional destabilization.
Reuf Bajrović, Vice President of the U.S.–Europe Alliance (Washington), stated that Russia’s hybrid influence is taking forms that are usually not visible in the media.
As an example, he cited the energy sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina, primarily in the territory of Republika Srpska, which has gradually been taken over by Russian companies.
Bajrović also pointed out that Belgrade cannot be viewed as the only hub for the spread of Russian influence in the region, stressing that other regional actors are also actively cooperating with Moscow through their own channels. In particular, he referred to Milorad Dodik.
Vitaliy Portnikov, Ukrainian journalist and publicist, characterized Russian influence in the region as lacking historical foundation. According to him, Moscow relies on local pro-Russian elites, and with their departure from power, the Kremlin’s influence narrows.
Nino Bilajac and Irvin Pekmez, investigative journalists from BIRN Bosnia and Herzegovina, presented an investigation into Russian paramilitary camps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in which hundreds of individuals underwent training for subsequent operations aimed at destabilizing Moldova during the recent parliamentary elections.
Bilajac also presented a broader view of Russian presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, noting that it has visibly intensified since 2022. He particularly pointed out that the number of employees in the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Sarajevo has significantly increased in recent years, with several cases involving diplomats expelled from other countries for espionage.
Roman Russu, Moldovan politologist, described the forms and channels of Russian influence on elections, stating that the scale is unprecedented — from disinformation campaigns to the training of paramilitary groups in the Western Balkans.
The politologist emphasized that the goal of Russia’s activities in Moldova is not merely a change of power in Chișinău but also the creation of a foothold for destructive actions against Kyiv and Bucharest.
Omar Memišević, Bosnian politologist, noted that Russia may be dissatisfied with the results of its policy in the Western Balkans due to differing interests between Moscow and local elites. While for Russia the goal is to destabilize the situation in the region, local politicians pursue their national interests, which do not imply a return to the 1990s.
Boris Varga, Serbian politologist, stated that “Russia and Serbia remain the main destabilizing factors in the region.”
“Russia, being outside the Western Balkans, destabilizes them through various methods, while Serbia is simultaneously both the source and the channel of this influence,” said Varga.
He also added that European institutions are currently demonstrating a lack of interest in the region, which creates space for Moscow’s strengthening.
Natalia Gumba (Ischchenko), co-founder of the Center for Western Balkans Studies (Ukraine), stated that “the security situation of the Western Balkans must be considered within a broader European context, since only in this way can concrete and effective approaches to countering threats be developed.”
The Center for Western Balkans Studies (CWBS) is an independent analytical center in the format of an NGO, registered in Montenegro.
The key goal of the Center is to monitor and analyze the situation in one of the most turbulent regions of the European continent and to provide expert assessments of the political, economic, social, and security situation in the region.
