Overview and forecast of hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies from KYT Group analysts
Issue No. 1 - September 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of September in the global financial markets, as well as in the Ukrainian one, was marked by the expectation of a key decision by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed chairman made it clear that policy would have to be adjusted in order not to “overstretch” the economy, which is already showing signs of cooling. Inflation rose slightly again in August, but not critically, and the labor market is gradually weakening. This has put investors on hold: whether the Fed will cut rates in September or take a break. This answer will affect not only the dollar, but also the dynamics of the euro and hryvnia, as well as gold, stock, and even cryptocurrency prices.
Against this background, Europe looks quite calm. Inflation is hovering around 2%, which is the level that the European Central Bank is targeting. There are no new reasons to raise rates, so the regulator decided not to change anything. The eurozone economy is growing very slowly, and this does not give the euro strong arguments for strengthening.
Oil and gas prices did not add to the intrigue in August and September: prices remained more or less stable, with no new peak fluctuations. This is even a disadvantage for the euro, as the absence of energy pressure removes the need for the ECB to act more firmly.
The actual Fed rate cut has not yet taken place, but the market is already living in anticipation of this step, which analysts believe is most likely. Both globally and in Ukraine, the dollar is gradually weakening precisely because investors are pricing in the high probability of a policy easing by the US central bank.
In the euro/dollar pair, the euro is recovering without any drivers of its own, thanks solely to the dollar's weakening. In Ukraine, the dollar is also drifting downward. This means that the “cheaper” dollar is actually already taken into account in quotes. At the same time, if the Fed does cut the rate in September, the reaction may be short and moderate, as the market has already played out most of the potential impact of this scenario. But if the Fed surprises by keeping the rate unchanged, the dollar will have a chance for a short-term pullback, and the market will have to quickly revise its estimates and expectations.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In Ukraine, the situation remains under control. The National Bank has record reserves and can smooth out any surges in demand or supply of currency. The official hryvnia exchange rate is gradually strengthening, and the cash market is moving in the same direction, without sharp deviations. Spreads - the difference between buying and selling - remain stable, indicating a consensus between the regulator and the market.
The key question for the coming weeks is how the dollar will react to the Fed's decision. If the rate is cut, the hryvnia may receive additional support, and the euro may rise slightly higher. If the rate is left unchanged, the dollar will retain its advantage, and the Ukrainian market will feel it.
The main news of the first half of September was the government's benchmark for the dollar exchange rate included in the draft budget for 2026 - an average annual rate of 45.6 UAH/$. It is close to the expectations of the business community: according to a survey by the European Business Association, member companies include UAH 46/$ in their financial plans for 2026, which is higher than the expected exchange rate for 2025 - UAH 44/$. In general, we see a devaluation consensus in the forecasts of the Ukrainian government and business, as there are no prerequisites for a reversal.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
September for the dollar is in a mode of smooth fluctuations with an almost flat downward trend. On global markets, the dollar has already played down most of the expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and this has been reflected in the domestic Ukrainian market.
Over the past 30 days, the exchange rate has been gradually slipping downward: the average buying rate dropped from UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.05, the selling rate from UAH 41.65 to UAH 41.50, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.35 to UAH 41.25. It was a steady and controlled decline, with no sharp impulses. In the second decade of September, the dollar remained in a narrow range of 41.00-41.30 UAH/$ on the cash market, while sales remained in the range of 41.45-41.60 UAH/$.
The NBU's official exchange rate moves in sync with the market, anchoring the market. Bid and ask spreads remained in a narrow range of UAH 0.40-0.50, while market rates remained equidistant from the official rate, indicating that there is a “rate consensus” between the market and the regulator.
Key factors of influence
- International context. On global markets, the dollar index came under pressure due to expectations of a Fed rate cut. This was also reflected in Ukraine: the exchange rate already takes into account most forecasts, and there is little room for additional weakening.
- NBU reserves. Ukraine has a record stock of international reserves, which allows the regulator to smooth out local fluctuations flexibly and quickly.
- Behavioral factor. The population does not create a rush demand for the dollar, focusing on the euro, which is more elastic in exchange rate formation. This reduces risks for the dollar cash segment and minimizes pressure on the market.
Forecast.
- In the short term (1-2 weeks): the base range is UAH 41.00-41.50/$, with possible deviations in the event of new signals from the Fed, with a tendency to the lower bound of the forecast in the event of a rate cut.
- Medium-term (2-3 months): 41.30-42.00 UAH/$. If the Fed cuts the rate, the dollar may fall to the lower bound in the short term, but fundamentally, the cushion of support for the dollar remains.
- Longer term (6+ months): the scenario of a smooth hryvnia devaluation remains. Given stable external inflows, the expected benchmark is UAH 43.00-44.50/$ by mid-2026, provided that the broader context of the current situation remains unchanged.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available at this link.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the first half of September, the euro on the Ukrainian market showed restrained dynamics with a gradual shift to the upper limits of the range. During the week, bidding quotes remained in the range of 48.00-48.10 UAH/€, while asking prices were 48.65-48.75 UAH/€. On the 30-day horizon, we can see an undulating trend: a decline in late August, stabilization in early September, and a new attempt to rise closer to the middle of the month.
Specifics of the course location
A characteristic change in the “geometry” is noteworthy: the buying rate during the previous week was clearly “pressing” against the official NBU rate, while the selling rate was gradually moving away from it. At the same time, the spread between buying and selling (0.50-0.60 UAH/€) remains relatively stable. This may indicate that:
- The public demand for buying euros has decreased, and banks with exchange offices are ready to accept currency from clients at almost the official rate without charging an additional premium.
- The euro's selling rate is kept higher as an insurance premium in case of sharp changes in global markets or a new round of demand. In other words, FX market operators are pricing in the potential for the euro to appreciate, even if it does not materialize.
- In fact, we see a balance between “calmness” on the supply side and cautious “foresight” on the demand side.
Key influencing factors
- Global context: expectations for the September Fed decision are creating nervousness in global markets. The euro is trying to hold its ground against the dollar, but without its own drivers for growth.
- Domestic market: demand for cash euros has cooled after the summer peak, and speculative activity has declined, reflecting the stabilization and narrowing of the spread between bid and ask rates.
- Behavioral factor: households and businesses tend to use the euro as a diversification and speculation tool rather than as a primary asset for transactions or savings.
Forecast.
- In the short term (1-2 weeks), the euro is likely to remain in the range of 48.20-48.80 UAH/€, with the possibility of short exits to 49.00 UAH/€ in the event of weak signals for the dollar from the US.
- In the medium term (2-3 months), the Fed's rate hikes may keep the euro in the range of 48.50-49.50 UAH/€, while a rate cut in the US could push it up to 50.00 UAH/€.
- Longer-term (6+ months): the baseline scenario is a smooth rise to the range of 49.50-51.00 UAH/€, taking into account the expected weakening of the dollar and the gradual recovery of the European economy.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available here.
Recommendations: dollar or euro - buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The dollar has already priced in a high probability of a September Fed rate cut in the domestic market. This means that there is limited room for further decline.
It makes little sense to buy at the bottom; it is better to distribute purchases in tranches without trying to catch the perfect moment.
If the Fed unexpectedly leaves the rate unchanged, the dollar may briefly play up, and this will be an opportunity for those who hold reserves to sell some of them at a profit.
For medium-term plans, the dollar remains the “anchor” of the portfolio, but now is not the time for large one-time transactions - liquidity and flexibility are more important.
EUR/UAH
The euro is showing an interesting “geometry”: the buying rate is approaching the official rate, while the selling rate is moving up. This signals a lower demand for the euro from the population, but also the cautiousness of operators who are laying down the risk of its growth.
It is now possible to buy euros in small tranches, especially for those who are diversifying their savings or preparing future payments to the EU.
If the Fed does cut the rate, the euro will get a boost and could quickly approach 49-50 UAH/€.
It makes little sense to sell the euro now, as the upside potential is higher than the downside risk.
It's better to wait for pullbacks or new peaks to optimize the euro's share of the portfolio.
Overall strategy
On a short-term horizon, it is worth keeping a balance: the dollar as a stable base, the euro as a flexible instrument with the potential for rebounds.
It is better to buy in installments rather than in one go.
Sell only when the market shows a tangible upward movement.
And most importantly, plan in ranges, not points: the Ukrainian market is currently reacting to external signals rather than internal events.
Given the consensus between the government and business on a manageable devaluation trend, the hryvnia is the best choice for saving money in the medium and long term.
If the Fed does cut the rate, it is worth considering diversifying your investment portfolio with crypto: the global market will be attracted to risk when it gets cheaper money.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any further warranty of completeness, obligation to be timely or to be updated or supplemented.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company's flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company's activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.