The Kremlin appears to have launched an intricate messaging campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is prioritizing maintaining the initiative in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in an update.

"The Kremlin is redirecting Russians' concerns over Kursk Oblast by preoccupying domestic society with humanitarian assistance drives to assist the affected residents of Kursk Oblast," it said.

ISW recalled that the Kremlin decided against canceling the upcoming Kursk region gubernatorial elections scheduled for September to minimize panic in the region, the Russian Central Election Commission, however, decided to postpone local elections in the seven districts in Kursk region that are impacted by the Ukrainian incursion due to security risks.

The Kremlin may be using this messaging campaign to afford itself time and space to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region after achieving its offensive objectives in eastern Ukraine.

"The Kremlin was initially shocked and worried about Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast but calmed down within a week because Ukrainian forces' advances were far from more densely populated regional centers such as Kursk City. […] The Kremlin's relaxed approach to the temporal aspect implies that the Kremlin has decided to prioritize tactical advances in Ukraine over rapidly restoring Russia's territorial integrity in Kursk, and this apparent decision undermines a series of long-standing narratives about Russian 'red lines'," ISW said.

Putin notably appears to be demanding that Russia defeat Ukraine's incursion into Kursk region without sacrificing the stability of his regime, deprioritizing the offensive in eastern Ukraine, or firing his incompetent but loyal lieutenants. The results of such a strategy are too early to forecast.

"ISW has repeatedly assessed that Putin has neglected the need to declare general mobilization throughout the course of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine out of concern for his regime's stability on numerous occasions, and his recent decision to announce a counterterrorism operation in Kursk Oblast (as opposed to declaring war or mobilization) may indicate that he is not prepared to respond to the incursion with mobilization at this time," it said.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout Kursk region salient on August 21 and have made additional marginal advances, ISW said. Ukrainian forces are advancing north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya and are encircling Russian forces in Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha and 19 kilometers from the international border). Geolocated footage published on August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced into southern Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha and 12 kilometers from the international border).