There are great chances in Ukraine for the formation of a new Eurosceptic party after the war - political scientist
After the war in Ukraine, the electoral field will change significantly and the attitude towards the Russian Federation will cease to be the main indicator of political sentiment. Instead, the emergence of a party of Eurosceptics is highly likely, Ihor Popov, political scientist and expert of the United Ukraine think tank, has said.
"The war changed everything. First of all, it completely destroyed the pro-Russian voter sector, because several million under occupation, at least 2 million left for Russia. Finally, there was a collapse of illusions regarding, in fact, the Russian leadership, the Kremlin, the imperial project, after the bombing, which they observe on themselves every day... However, the remnants of the mood in this segment, of course, remain. The indicators are language, faith, history and heroes. And in order for these voters not to disperse, so that they remain consolidated, they are constantly reminded of this," Popov said during a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Friday.
He notes that pro-Western voters in Ukraine still have faith in Western help, but in just 3-4 months, the attitude of Ukrainians towards the US leadership has changed dramatically and "the collapse of illusions regarding the West in general" persists.
"There is a risk that Ukrainians' expectations are quite high, because Ukraine deserved the war, Ukraine deserved the fact that it protects the entire West and all of Europe, Ukraine deserved to be accepted into the collective security system and into the collective economy. If this does not happen, the probability of a non-Georgian scenario may increase, I would say more of an Eastern European scenario. That is, a demand for political forces like "Law and Justice" in Poland, like Georgescu in Romania, there are similar parties in Bulgaria, Orban in Hungary. That is, those parties that talk about the priority of sovereign interests, that they do not want to accept migrants according to quotas from Brussels, that they have their own vision and their own program regarding gender values and gender reforms," the expert noted.
Popov also believes that Turkey can also be a model to follow, as a country that waited 30 years for negotiations on EU membership, but in the end declared a different sovereign course and is confidently moving along it.
"And therefore, in this regard, we may have a coincidence with the request of the Ukrainian elites.... Ukrainian elites, they are not very often satisfied with the proposals made by Western governments... And if this is superimposed on the Euroscepticism of the population, then we have great chances of forming a new party of Eurosceptics, which can get a fairly large result literally in the first electoral cycle," the political scientist pointed out.
At the same time, according to him, the question now is with whom such a political force will create situational alliances, "because on a number of value issues, geopolitical issues, they may also coincide with a pro-Russian party."
"And therefore, if in other situations the pro-Russian party, the military party, can oppress the parliament somewhere, then when voting on some other laws, including economic ones, it can create a situational alliance. That is, this is not yet a Georgian scenario, but this is a serious change in the electoral field. And this is a threat because then European integration can freeze on both sides, both from Brussels and from Kyiv for many years," Popov said.